Iran war: Success or disaster? Mehdi Hasan and David Des Roches

The recent escalation between Iran, Israel, and the United States has forced a reckoning with a hard truth: the Middle East remains trapped in a cycle of retaliatory violence, where short-term tactical gains risk long-term strategic instability. The February airstrikes, framed as preemptive measures against Iranian-backed proxies and nuclear ambitions, underscore a broader dilemma in modern warfare—when does force achieve deterrence, and when does it merely exacerbate the very threats it seeks to suppress? The answer is far from clear. For Iran, these strikes have exacerbated domestic unrest, deepened economic strain under sanctions, and radicalized segments of the population that already chafe under theocratic rule. Meanwhile, Israel’s calculus—balancing existential security concerns with the risk of regional conflagration—has only grown more precarious, as every escalation emboldens hardliners on both sides while pushing moderates toward irrelevance. What makes this moment particularly volatile is the erosion of diplomatic buffers. The once-fragile channels of communication between Tehran and Washington, sporadically maintained even during periods of open hostility, have all but collapsed. Iran’s nuclear program, now reportedly closer to weapons-grade enrichment than at any point in years, serves as both a bargaining chip and a flashpoint. The IAEA’s warnings of unchecked advances in Fordow and Natanz facilities have done little to temper the cycle of strikes and counterstrikes, leaving analysts to wonder whether any de-escalation is even possible without a fundamental shift in how these adversaries perceive each other’s red lines. Looking ahead, the most pressing open question is whether Iran’s leadership, facing internal pressure from protests and economic collapse, will double down on proxy warfare as a means of redirecting dissent outward. Alternatively, could Israel’s leadership, emboldened by perceived successes in Gaza and against Iranian assets, push for even more aggressive strikes—risking a direct Iran-Israel war that drags in the U.S. and Arab states? The answer may hinge on whether cooler heads in the region, including in Gulf states wary of further chaos, can broker even the most modest confidence-building measures before mutual distrust hardens into irreversible enmity. One thing is certain: the next phase of this conflict will not be decided on the battlefield alone, but in the fragile space between escalation and exhaustion, where miscalculation could prove far deadlier than any airstrike.