Nigeria: How religious divides worsen conflict during drought

Across the Sahel region, where many Fulani herders have historically lived, rising temperatures, drought, and desertification have reduced grazing land. Now, pastoralists are increasingly driving their stock beyond traditional ranges and coming into conflict with sedentary farming communities.

The WZB Berlin Social Science Center drew on over two decades of data across Nigeria to examine links between drought patterns, conflict incidents, and the religious composition of local communities.

Sociology professor Ruud Koopmans, who co-authored the study, said the data challenges the perception that climate change is the main driver of violence. Instead, he points to religious divisions as the decisive factor.

"Where these Muslim pastoralists meet farmers, who are in majority Christian, that is where we have the largest number of violent confrontations," says Koopmans, who is based at Berlin's Humboldt University.

He adds: "Where there is this religious divide, the conflict is further exacerbated by droughts."

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Researchers used a survey in Kaduna State, north-western Nigeria, to establish that Christian respondents were more likely to attribute conflict over grazing lands to religious causes, and harbor greater distrust of Muslim Fulanis. Meanwhile, Muslim respondents were more likely to cite droughts and competition for resources as the cause for conflict.

The researchers say similar dynamics could apply beyond Nigeria, including in parts of the Sahel where climate stress and social divisions overlap.