Tactical voting by Greens and Lib Dems could be key to Labour victory in Makerfield

Left-leaning voters more willing to back Andy Burnham than Restore supporters are to vote Reform

Tactical voting could be fundamental to a Labour victory in Makerfield, with Green and Liberal Democrat supporters willing to back Andy Burnham to stop Reform UK from winning.

Conversely, Reform’s main competitor for votes on the right is Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party. Polling experts have said current data suggests the size of their vote share is roughly similar to Labour’s poll lead.

But while left-leaning voters were willing to lend their vote to Burnham, Restore Britain voters appeared to be less willing to support Robert Kenyon, Reform’s candidate.

The Guardian also found Green voters in the constituency were willing to back Burnham , while recent polling by Opinium found that more than half of those who said they would vote Green or Lib Dem in a general election, “if it was held tomorrow”, were planning to vote for Burnham in the byelection.

In contrast, the polling found that only about a third of those who said they would vote Restore in a general election were willing to switch their vote.

At the last general election, in July 2024, the Lib Dems won 7% of the vote, and the Greens 4.5%, which combined is significantly more than Andy Burnham’s narrow poll lead.

In May’s council election in Wigan, the Greens won 10.5% and Lib Dems 3.5%. Voting intention for the byelection gives figures of less than 1% and less than 2% respectively.