The Mitch Marner Effect: How one decision put Vegas and Carolina on a Stanley Cup Final path

RALEIGH, N.C. — A few days in early March 2025 changed the course of the NHL. Mitch Marner was at the epicenter of it.

Marner was nearing the end of his contract with Toronto , and all signs pointed to him not re-signing. Carolina had just acquired fellow pending free agent Mikko Rantanen from Colorado in a three-way trade in late January, and after several weeks it also was clear that would not be a long-term relationship.

The Maple Leafs and Hurricanes discussed the possibility of a Marner-for-Rantanen swap. Marner held the keys with his full no-movement clause, and he preferred staying put and seeing out one more run with the team that drafted him, then went on to choose Vegas , going to the Golden Knights in a sign and trade in late June before hitting the open market.

Marner’s decision caused a domino effect that led Vegas and Carolina to this stage, where they’ll now meet in the Stanley Cup Final. The Hurricanes pivoted to sending Rantanen to Dallas for Logan Stankoven — one of their best players during this run — along with a pick they then used to trade for K’Andre Miller last summer, in the process saving the salary cap space needed to sign top free agent Nikolaj Ehlers .

The Golden Knights got Marner, who leads all scorers in the playoffs and left no doubt why the Hurricanes were interested. Asked what the team liked, general manager Eric Tulsky declined comment because Marner is under contract with another team.

“I can answer that one,” coach Rod Brind’Amour said. “What don’t you like about him?”

When speculation was building last spring about Marner potentially being involved in a trade for Rantanen, it wasn’t just a question of hockey. Marner’s wife, Stephanie, was pregnant with the couple’s first child. Marner is from the Toronto area.

The Leafs reached the second round before blowing a 2-0 series lead to defending and eventual back-to-back champion Florida . The Hurricanes lost in five games to the Panthers in the East final, still missing something.