Eritrea’s military involvement escalates as Tigray fighting intensifies in Ethiopia

On September 23, fighting escalated dramatically in Ethiopia's Tigray region, with Tigrayan forces capturing three local airports. The conflict has now spread into the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara. Both sides blame each other for the renewed violence, which poses a significant threat to the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the previous Tigray war.

Eritrea's role in this renewed conflict is crucial. Martin Plaut, a British journalist who specializes in the Horn of Africa, highlights that the U.S. needs Eritrea to help secure the Red Sea against the Houthis, an Iran-backed militia. The lifting of U.S. sanctions on Eritrea has given this repressive regime new political weight. As tensions rise in Tigray, Eritrea could become a decisive military player once again. Plaut warns that these tensions could escalate into a broader regional conflict, which he describes as a serious threat.

The escalation in Tigray followed closely on the heels of the U.S. removing key Eritrean entities and individuals from its sanctions list just days earlier. On September 18, the United States allowed the national emergency tied to its sanctions on Ethiopia to expire. This included the removal of sanctions against Eritrean financial officials and institutions, which had been imposed in 2021 due to the Tigray war. While U.S. officials have not endorsed Eritrea or confirmed a deal with its leader, Isaias Afwerki, the move reduces pressure on a government whose strategic importance has increased amid deteriorating security in the Red Sea region.

Political analysts emphasize the broader geopolitical implications of Eritrea's newfound significance. Abdurahman Sayed, director at the Horn of Africa Centre for Regional Integration, points out that the ongoing conflict with Iran and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have heightened the importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where Eritrea is located. Eritrea controls a key coastline opposite Yemen, and its southern port of Assab lies near this vital maritime route. As the regional landscape shifts since the last Tigray war, experts like Moses Okello of the Institute for Security Studies note that the dynamics have fundamentally changed, highlighting the complex interplay of local and international interests in the Horn of Africa.